Jay Sarno

National Gaming Results

October was up to last year.

As compared to last year the calendar shows losing a Saturday and gaining a Tuesday. For most regional properties, the net effect of this calendar difference equates to a revenue negative of between -2% to -3% as compared to last year. For October 2017 vs October 2016, nationwide shows more than half of states gaining. Gaming revenue gained +3% again keep in mind that KS, MD and NY are a significant portion of these gains.

The year-to-date figures show the country at +3% to same time last year. In 2017 versus 2016, KS opened Kansas Crossing, MD opened MGM National Harbor and NY opened two full casinos and another VLT parlor on Long Island. The results would have been a lesser gain of roughly +1% when states opening new facilities are factored out.

2017 National Gaming Growth Forecast

The drivers for the casino gaming industry: employment, income and gas prices are in weak to moderate growth position although we see gas prices recovering from the hurricanes and over next month dropping to around or under $2.25/gallon. However, with inflation tracking at +2% to +3% there is little “real” wage/income growth.

  • Our 2016 gaming forecast range was of growth of between +1% to +3%.
  • Our 2017 forecast is:

Initially we are seeing much of the same in 2017 as in 2016 with growth being in the +1% to +3% range as the level of core inflation of offsets combined gains in income levels and population.

Figure 1 Number of States Gaining, recent month to same month last year.
52% of the states are reporting gains for October 2017 which is now eight consecutive months of more states gaining versus losing.

Additionally, the hurdle for the casino industry will be trying to grow in successive years which is often a difficulty for any mature industry.

Jay Sarno has 20+ years of experience in the Hospitality and Gaming Industry. Jay consults on casino marketing segmentation programs, software product development and technology solutions evaluations, selections and implementations. Jay has implemented over 20 data warehouse systems and currently also teaches courses in Hospitality Management for Richard Stockton College of NJ. Jay can be reached at JSA2002@comcast.net and welcomes your comments and questions.

Note: JSA calculates monthly trends in adjusted total win for all states. We use adjusted total win for a variety of reasons but mostly to provide a consistent basis. Many states report combined slot and table revenue and our reporting reflects same. Some states separate slot and table win and where this occurs we report the combined total. The exceptions to the separate slot and table win are NJ and NV where table revenue is a large component of total win and often generates very volatile results. So for better picture of the overall market for NJ and NV results, slot revenue is reported.